United test Brighton's resolve
Manchester United have made an initial offer of £60m plus £5m in add-ons for Brighton's Carlos Baleba, with the Cameroon international having already agreed personal terms. The bid sits below Brighton's valuation, and United believe the total package can land below the £75m benchmark that has defined negotiations since last summer.
The context matters. Brighton valued Baleba at around £100m a year ago. An uneven 2025-26 season, plus a current ankle injury, has softened the asking price. United are betting that the dip in form is temporary and that the fee has room to fall further.
The third piece of the midfield rebuild
Baleba would become United's third midfielder of the summer, continuing a deliberate restructuring of the engine room:
- Youri Tielemans: signed from Aston Villa for £35m
- Andrey Santos: signed from Chelsea for £48m
- Carlos Baleba: £60m plus £5m add-ons offered
Baleba's preference is to play as the No 6, which would put him in direct competition with Santos for the holding role. His dynamism and ball-carrying energy are the attributes United's recruitment team believes separate him from a conventional destroyer.
What skouted.ai's model says
The skouted.ai engine rates Baleba at an OVR of 80 with a market value in the EUR 55M-70M range. That places United's £65m total package at the top of the model's fair-value band. In other words: this is a full price for a player whose consistency has not yet matched his ceiling, not a bargain.
The undervaluation score is modest. Unlike the South American steals populating the top of the deal-score rankings, Baleba is a known commodity at an elite league, and the market has priced him accordingly. The upside case rests on his age, not on a pricing error.
Risk factors
The ankle injury is the immediate concern. Spending £65m on a midfielder who cannot start the season requires certainty about the medical picture. The performance variance is the longer-term one: Brighton's own valuation dropping from £100m to around £75m inside twelve months tells you the 2025-26 season did not go to plan.
United are paying premium prices for potential rather than proven output. If the ankle heals and the form returns, £65m is defensible. If neither happens, it is another expensive lesson.
AI Verdict: Hold
World-class physical tools, elite league experience at 22, but an uneven season and an injury cloud. The price is fair rather than favorable. Watch how the add-on structure resolves before calling this one.
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