The goal that restarted the conversation
September 10 was a good night to be Lisandro Martínez. In Manchester United’s 4-0 Champions League win over Sabah, the Argentine center back scrambled home his first ever Champions League goal, a poacher’s finish from a loose ball in the box. It was a small footnote in a big win and a neat summary of where his United career stands: still contributing, still fighting, still worth the trouble.
It has not been a smooth road. A serious injury in February 2025 cost him the run-in of that season, and he returned to marshal the backline alongside Harry Maguire during the resurgence under Michael Carrick. This season he is again a cornerstone of a defense trying to keep United in touch at the top.
The contract clock United keep ignoring
The model’s expiring board tells the uncomfortable part. Martínez is 27, rated 84 OVR, valued between €36.0M and €44.0M, and his contract runs only to 2027, nine months from now. His undervaluation score of 16 means he is fairly priced, a fairly priced elite defender about to enter his final contractual year.
From January 1, Martínez can sign a pre-contract with any foreign club. The pattern is well established on our expiring board, where Vinícius Júnior, Phil Foden, Rodri and the rest of the 2027 class drift toward free agency with every passing month. United have seen this movie. They are in danger of renting a sequel.
The economics are stark. Extend now and the asset stays on the balance sheet at full value. Sell next summer and recoup perhaps half of his €40M band. Do nothing, and in twelve months one of the league's best left-sided center backs walks out for free. There is no fourth option.
What the model says
The deal score of 61 places him mid-table on the expiring board, below the younger Geovany Quenda and Yasin Ayari, both also on 2027 deals, because at 27 the resale curve has flattened. But OVR 84 defenders in their prime years are not resale assets. They are win-now assets, and United, chasing a Champions League run, need exactly that.
The decision
For United the verdict is hold and extend. Selling mid-season weakens a defense in three competitions, and the free-agent cliff is avoidable with one signature. For Martínez, the leverage is total: a strong season at 84 OVR means suitors in Spain and Italy will queue up in January with pre-contract offers and no fee.
The goal against Sabah was the fun part. The next nine months are the important part.
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