Arsenal’s contract time bomb
Gabriel Martinelli has been one of Arsenal’s most important players since Mikel Arteta’s project began. An OVR of 85 at 24 years old puts him firmly in the “prime asset” category. He should be untouchable. Instead, he enters the 2026-27 season with 11 months remaining on his contract.
This is not a situation Arsenal wanted. Martinelli’s importance to the team is reflected in his rating: he is among the top 20 left wingers in world football by OVR. His deal score of 68 indicates a moderately attractive acquisition target for rival clubs, but the real story is the leverage his contract situation provides.
The skouted.ai perspective
The scouting engine gives Martinelli a UV score of 29, which is low. This means he is approximately fairly valued relative to his market value. There is no hidden bargain here. What there is, however, is a structural opportunity created by the contract timeline.
His market value of EUR 40.5M to EUR 49.5M reflects his standing as a proven Premier League winger in his physical prime. But if Arsenal fail to extend him before January 2027, that value collapses. A pre-contract agreement would cost an acquiring club nothing in transfer fees, only wages and signing bonuses.
What makes Martinelli valuable
At 24, Martinelli is entering the age window where wingers typically deliver their best seasons. His trajectory at Arsenal has been one of consistent improvement:
| Metric | 2023-24 | 2024-25 | 2025-26 |
|---|---|---|---|
| OVR | 82 | 84 | 85 |
| League Goals | 8 | 11 | 14 |
| Assists | 5 | 6 | 7 |
| Minutes | 2,100 | 2,400 | 2,650 |
The progression is clear. Martinelli is improving season over season, and his goal output in 2025-26 was his best in a single Premier League campaign. This is exactly the type of player a club should be locking down on a long-term deal.
Why hasn’t it been done?
Reports suggest the delay centers on wage structure. Arsenal have maintained a disciplined salary framework under Arteta and sporting director Edu’s successor. Martinelli’s camp is reportedly seeking wages that would place him among the club’s top earners, in line with his OVR and importance to the team.
Arsenal’s hesitation likely reflects a broader strategic question: is Martinelli a foundational piece (OVR 88+ ceiling) or a very good player who has reached his ceiling (OVR 85-86)? The data suggests there is still room for growth, but the curve is beginning to flatten.
The hardest contracts to negotiate are the ones where both sides have a legitimate argument. Martinelli is worth what he is asking. Arsenal are right to be cautious about wage inflation. Neither side is wrong.
Who is watching?
If Martinelli becomes available, either through a sale this summer or a pre-contract in January, the list of interested clubs would be substantial:
- Saudi Pro League clubs have the financial firepower to blow any competing offer out of the water
- Serie A champions could offer a different sporting project
- La Liga giants are always in the market for OVR 85+ wingers
- fellow Premier League clubs would face less resistance acquiring a player from a domestic rival in a contract year
AI Verdict: Hold
Martinelli is not an acquisition target for rival clubs in the traditional sense. His value is fair, his wages will be high, and Arsenal have no desire to sell. But the contract situation creates a fascinating dynamic. If no extension is signed by September, expect significant speculation and mounting pressure from both the player’s camp and interested suitors.
For Arsenal, the message from the data is clear: extend the contract now, while the negotiating position is still manageable. The longer this drags on, the more expensive it becomes.
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