The Contract Situation
Another Premier League star entering a contract year. Gabriel Martinelli, the 24-year-old Brazilian winger at Arsenal, has 12 months remaining on his contract.
With an OVR of 85 and a market value of €40.5-49.5M, Martinelli represents significant value. Arsenal face a critical decision: extend, sell, or risk losing a key attacking player.
The Player Profile
Martinelli joined Arsenal from Brazilian side Ituano in 2019. He developed into one of the Premier League’s most exciting wide players, with an OVR of 85 at age 24.
As a left winger, Martinelli brings pace, direct running, and goal-scoring ability. He’s effective both as a creator and finisher, making him versatile in Arsenal’s attacking system.
The deal score of 68 suggests this is a favorable situation for potential buyers, particularly given Martinelli’s age profile and positional value.
The Decision Matrix
Arsenal face three clear options:
Option 1: Extend Long-Term
- Offer Martinelli a significant wage increase and long-term security
- Lock in a key attacking player for his prime years (24-29)
- Maintain squad continuity and attacking threat
- Financial outlay: €200K-300K per week in wages + signing bonus
Option 2: Sell This Summer
- Capitalise on the €40.5-49.5M market value
- Avoid the risk of losing him for nothing in 2027
- Use the funds to reinforce other areas of the squad
- Financial outcome: €40.5-49.5M transfer fee received
Option 3: Risk and Wait
- Hope Martinelli signs a contract extension during the season
- Risk losing him for nothing if he doesn't extend
- Face the January dilemma of reduced transfer value
- Financial risk: Potential loss of €40.5-49.5M asset
The Brazilian Factor
Martinelli’s nationality adds complexity. Brazilian players are attractive to clubs across Europe, particularly in Spain and Italy. If Martinelli doesn’t extend with Arsenal, he’ll have no shortage of suitors.
The Premier League’s appeal to Brazilian players is strong, but so is the financial allure of Saudi Arabia or the competitive challenge of La Liga.
Potential Destinations
If Arsenal decide to sell, which clubs would be interested?
Real Madrid: Always interested in elite attacking talent. Martinelli would fit their system and has the profile for a big-money move.
Barcelona: Financial constraints make a €40.5-49.5M move difficult, but they prioritize young, attacking players.
Paris Saint-Germain: Have the financial resources and need attacking depth after recent changes.
Bayern Munich: Looking to rebuild their attack after recent departures. Martinelli would be ideal.
English Rivals: Chelsea and Manchester City would be interested, but Arsenal are unlikely to sell to a direct Premier League competitor.
The Market Context
Martinelli’s market value of €40.5-49.5M places him among the valuable wingers in world football. For context:
- Bukayo Saka — €120M+ (age 23)
- Gabriel Martinelli — €40.5-49.5M (age 24)
- Phil Foden — €63-77M (age 25)
- Raheem Sterling — €20-25M (age 31)
Martinelli sits in a sweet spot — young enough to have upside, established enough to have proven quality.
The Timing Factor
The 12-month window creates urgency. If Arsenal wait until January 2027, the transfer value drops significantly. If Martinelli runs down his contract, he could leave for nothing or command a massive wage packet elsewhere.
For potential buyers, the calculus is different. They can:
- Pay €40.5-49.5M now and secure a proven Premier League winger
- Wait and attempt a free transfer in 2027 (risky — other clubs will be interested)
- Offer a pre-contract agreement in January 2027
| Factor | Assessment |
|---|---|
| Age | 24 (prime approaching) |
| OVR | 85 (established quality) |
| UV Score | 29 (moderately undervalued) |
| Deal Score | 68 (favorable for buyers) |
| Contract Status | 12 months left (urgent) |
| Positional Value | High (winger premium) |
| Market Value | €40.5M - €49.5M (fair for quality) |
What Should Arsenal Do?
The data suggests a clear path: extend Martinelli’s contract. Here’s why:
- Age profile — At 24, Martinelli is entering his peak years
- Quality level — OVR of 85 is established Premier League quality
- System fit — Martinelli fits Arsenal's attacking system perfectly
- Development ceiling — Still has room to improve
- Squad continuity — Losing Martinelli disrupts Arsenal's attacking identity
The financial outlay for a contract extension is significant, but it’s cheaper than replacing Martinelli’s production and attacking threat.
AI Verdict: Buy
A 24-year-old winger with an OVR of 85 is the kind of asset that smart clubs lock down long-term. The risk of losing him for nothing outweighs the financial outlay of an extension.
This contract situation will be one of the defining stories of Arsenal’s summer. The decision they make will impact their competitiveness for the next 2-3 years.
For Martinelli, this is a career-defining moment. Does he commit to Arsenal long-term and become part of their project? Or does he seek a new challenge elsewhere?
The coming months will be critical.
View full profile and AI-powered transfer intelligence at skouted.ai