Arsenal are facing a significant contract decision. Gabriel Martinelli, once considered untouchable, is entering the final 12 months of his deal with question marks surrounding his form and future.
The Brazilian winger has an OVR of 85 and a deal score of 77, ranking him among the most attractive expiring contract opportunities in Europe. But his 2025-26 season has been a struggle, and Arsenal must decide whether to extend, sell, or risk losing him for nothing.
A season to forget
Martinelli’s 2025-26 Premier League campaign has been his least productive since his breakthrough year. In 30 appearances, he has managed just 1 goal and 4 assists in 1,079 minutes. His goals per 90 of 0.08 is a sharp decline from the rates that made him one of the most exciting young wingers in Europe.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Appearances | 30 |
| Goals | 1 |
| Assists | 4 |
| Minutes | 1,079 |
| Goals per 90 | 0.08 |
| Assists per 90 | 0.33 |
| Passing Accuracy | 72% |
| UV Score | 61 (Undervalued) |
| Deal Score | 77 |
The context behind the numbers
Martinelli’s reduced goal output is partly explained by reduced minutes. He has started only a handful of matches, often coming off the bench. When he has played, his creative output of 0.33 assists per 90 shows he is still contributing to the team in meaningful ways.
His attacking output score of 75 remains the strongest part of his profile, and at 24, he should be entering his peak years. The dip in form could be tactical, motivational, or simply a rough patch in a system that no longer maximizes his strengths.
The contract dilemma
Arsenal are in a tricky position. Martinelli’s market value of EUR 40.5-49.5M reflects his proven Premier League quality, but his recent goal drought means they cannot command a premium. If they sell now, they risk letting a player go who could rediscover his form elsewhere. If they do not sell and fail to extend, they lose him for nothing in 2027.
The interest will be there. Serie A clubs have long admired Martinelli, and a return to Italy where he spent time in the Ituano academy is not out of the question. Saudi Arabian clubs have also been linked with Premier League wingers.
Martinelli's deal score of 77 is high because the market still believes in his ability. A change of scenery could unlock the player who terrorized Premier League defenses just two seasons ago.
AI Verdict: Hold
Martinelli is a classic buy-low candidate, but the circumstances make a transfer complicated. His UV score of 61 suggests he is undervalued, but until the goal drought ends, clubs will hesitate to invest heavily. For Arsenal, the smart move is to extend the contract and give him one more season to prove himself.
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