The State of the Squad
Chelsea’s 2025-26 season ended with a fifth-place finish and an FA Cup semi-final exit — respectable but below the club’s ambitions. The underlying numbers tell a more nuanced story: Chelsea’s xG differential (+0.42 per match) ranked third in the Premier League, suggesting a team whose results slightly underperformed their process.
The gap between performance and results has been attributed to two factors: injuries to key players (Reece James missed 18 league matches; Wesley Fofana missed 22) and a lack of depth in specific positions that forced Enzo Maresca to over-rely on a thin core.
Heading into the summer window, Chelsea’s recruitment team — working in conjunction with data analytics partner Skouted — has identified four priority positions. Below, we break down each need and recommend two statistically-optimized targets per position.
Position 1: Right-Back (Rotation / Competition for James)
Reece James, when fit, remains one of the best right-backs in the Premier League. The problem is availability. Over the past three seasons, James has started just 54 of 114 league matches (47.4%). Malo Gusto has deputised admirably but is better suited to a wing-back role in a back five than a conventional right-back in Maresca’s preferred 4-2-3-1.
Target A: Gijs Smal (Feyenoord) — OVR 82, MV €12M
Smal has been one of Eredivisie’s most consistent performers for two seasons. His profile:
- 2.8 key passes per 90 from right-back — elite creative output
- 87.3% pass completion — suits Maresca’s possession system
- 1.9 tackles won per 90 — adequate defensive contribution
- Available for €10-14M with one year remaining on his Feyenoord contract
Smal’s Skouted profile shows a player whose statistical output in the Eredivisie projects well to mid-table Premier League level immediately, with upside for more.
Target B: Vanderson (AS Monaco) — OVR 84, MV €25M
The more ambitious option. Vanderson combines defensive solidity with genuine attacking quality:
- 3.1 progressive carries per 90 from right-back
- 65% dribble success rate when overlapping
- 2.4 tackles + interceptions per 90
- Champions League experience — 14 appearances across two seasons
At €25M, Vanderson would represent a significant investment for a backup, but his age (24) and profile suggest he could push James for the starting spot or fill in seamlessly during absences.
Position 2: Striker (Primary Goal Scorer)
Nicolas Jackson’s 2025-26 season (11 goals in 31 league appearances) has reinforced the suspicion that he is better suited to a rotation role than as a primary striker. Chelsea’s conversion rate of 11.2% from non-penalty shots ranked 12th in the Premier League — a significant drag on their xG.
Target A: Benjamin Šeško (RB Leipzig) — OVR 86, MV €55M
Šeško’s second season at Leipzig has been his best yet: 18 Bundesliga goals in 29 appearances, with an xG overperformance of +2.7. His profile is ideal for the Premier League:
- 1.87m, strong aerial presence (54% aerial duel success)
- Shot conversion rate of 18.3% — clinical
- 3.2 touches in the opposition box per 90 — gets into dangerous positions consistently
- Age 22 — significant room for development
The €55M price tag is steep, but Šeško’s age and output profile make him a legitimate long-term solution.
Target B: Santiago Giménez (Feyenoord) — OVR 83, MV €30M
The budget alternative. Giménez has scored 48 Eredivisie goals over the past two seasons and has been consistently linked with Premier League moves. His finishing is elite (19.8% conversion rate) but questions remain about whether Eredivisie scoring translates to the Premier League. Historical data suggests a 30-40% regression in output — which would still put Giménez at 8-12 goals per season, a useful contribution.
Position 3: Central Midfield (Progressive 8)
Enzo Fernández and Moisés Caicedo have formed a solid partnership, but Chelsea lack a true progressive number 8 who can carry the ball through the lines and create from midfield. Cole Palmer drops deep to compensate, which pulls him away from his optimal position.
Target A: Adam Wharton (Crystal Palace) — OVR 84, MV €45M
Wharton’s move to Palace has been a success, and his profile fits Chelsea’s needs precisely:
- 3.8 progressive carries per 90 from central midfield
- 2.4 key passes per 90 — genuine creative threat
- 88.1% pass completion — reliable in possession
- English, homegrown — satisfies squad registration requirements
The €45M fee reflects Palace’s reluctance to sell, but Wharton’s statistical profile and age (22) justify the premium.
Target B: Dani Olmo (Free Agent) — OVR 85, MV €0
Olmo’s contract situation at Barcelona has made him available on a Bosman. While his injury history is a concern (averaging 18 missed league matches per season over the past three years), his quality when fit is undeniable:
- 0.54 xA per 90 — elite creative output
- 4.1 progressive passes per 90
- Versatile — can play 8, 10, or wide left
A free transfer with performance-based wages would mitigate the injury risk significantly.
Position 4: Centre-Back (Left-Sided, Ball-Playing)
Levi Colwill’s development has plateaued slightly, and Badiashiele remains inconsistent. A ball-playing left-sided centre-back who can compete for a starting spot would strengthen Chelsea’s defensive depth.
Target A: Luka Vušković (Hamburger SV) — OVR 91, Free Transfer
The Bosman opportunity of the summer. Vušković’s profile has been covered extensively elsewhere, but the fit with Chelsea is obvious: an elite young ball-playing CB available for no fee. Competition from Bayern and Real Madrid is fierce, but Chelsea can offer immediate Premier League minutes.
Target B: Jorrel Hato (Ajax) — OVR 83, MV €22M
If Vušković chooses elsewhere, Hato is an excellent alternative. The 20-year-old Dutch international has been Ajax’s most consistent defender for two seasons:
- 91.2% pass completion — elite ball-playing ability
- 3.4 progressive passes per 90 from centre-back
- 2.8 interceptions per 90
- Can also play left-back — positional flexibility
At €22M, Hato represents good value for a player with 100+ Eredivisie appearances and international experience.
Summary: The AI-Optimised Shopping List
| Position | Primary Target | Fee | Secondary Target | Fee |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Right-Back | Vanderson (Monaco) | €25M | Gijs Smal (Feyenoord) | €12M |
| Striker | Benjamin Šeško (Leipzig) | €55M | Santiago Giménez (Feyenoord) | €30M |
| Central Midfield | Adam Wharton (Palace) | €45M | Dani Olmo (Free) | €0 |
| Centre-Back | Luka Vušković (Hamburger SV) | €0 | Jorrel Hato (Ajax) | €22M |
Total primary spend: €125M (plus Vušković agent/signing costs of ~€10M) Total secondary spend: €64M
Chelsea’s reported summer budget is in the range of €150-180M, comfortably accommodating either scenario. The key decision facing the club is whether to pursue the ambitious primary targets (Šeško, Wharton, Vanderson) or opt for the budget alternatives and allocate savings to squad depth.
The data points toward a hybrid approach: Vušković on a free, Šeško as the marquee signing, and one of Wharton/Olmo in midfield. That combination — roughly €100-110M in total — would address all four positional needs while leaving room for a right-back signing if James’s injury concerns persist into pre-season.